[NYTr] Hanna Siniora: Blaire's Formal Introduction into the Mideast

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

This Week in Palestine 
 Ju 30, 2007
http://www.ipcri.org

Behind the News

Interesting Future Developments, Low Threshold of Expectations

TONY BLAIR'S FORMAL INTRODUCTION INTO THE REGION

by Hanna Siniora

The two adversaries, Israel and Palestine, are wondering about Blair's
intentions after the formalities of meeting Blair are over. Will Blair
stick to the limited mandate he has been given by the Quartet to further
the building of Palestinian governmental institutions, help rebuild the
Palestinian economy or is Blair intending to broaden his mandate by
mediating between the Palestinian leadership and Israel? Blair takes pride
in his achievement in helping to end the conflict in Northern Ireland, and
in getting the IRA involved, is that a signal that Blair will engage Hamas
and work toward internal Palestinian reconciliation? All these issues are
part of the expectations, if like Jimmy Carter before him, Tony Blair can
help reach a settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he will be
rewarded with the Noble Peace Prize.

By September, Blair and his team will slowly reveal his agenda when he
returns back to the region, initially active in the effort to revive the
Palestinian economy and in building its institutions.

Prime Minister Olmert recently announced that the preferred future link
between Gaza and the West Bank would be a 40-km tunnel, linking Gaza with
Tarqumia in the Hebron district. Previously an elevated or sunken highway
with a rail and infrastructure link were mentioned, a serious study must
be conducted to link Gaza to the West Bank. Essentially it would help
revive the moribund Palestinian economy, and a project of such magnitude
will create joint Israeli-Palestinian business partnerships and a great
number of jobs. Also, politically it will help the reconciliation process
between Hamas and Fateh, and accentuate that Gaza and the West Bank are
one geographical unit.

In putting the Gaza-West Bank land link as a priority, Tony Blair can
start work on his original mandate without creating political tensions
with Israel and Fateh, make contact with Hamas based initially at the
economic level that will have political intonations. Parallel to that,
Blair would be watching what kind of progress Dr. Rice, the US Secretary
of State, would be able to produce in holding the Regional Summit
Conference that initially President George Bush announced as the
International Peace Conference.

Regional Summit

Officially, Autumn starts in September, the proposed Regional Summit that
would bring to the conference table, Israel and Palestine, the Quartet and
some Arab countries under auspices of Dr. Condi Rice, might take place in
September or October 2007. Speculations abound on whom beside Jordan and
Egypt from the Arab countries would be attending. All sides want Saudi
Arabia to participate, but the Saudi leadership has indicated that its
presence depends on having Hamas present in some form within the formal
Palestinian delegation headed by President Mahmoud Abbas. So far, no
reconciliation process has started, and expectations are low that in the
next two months it will materialize.

All previous initiatives, at any level, were doomed to failure, when Syria
intentionally or unintentionally was not involved. So far, Dr. Rice has
shown no such intentions of inviting Syria to the conference table, even
though, the main agenda is Israeli-Palestinian. Many regional analysts
firmly believe that no major breakthrough would result from the
conference, as Syria and Hamas, are not going to be invited, and that real
intentions of holding such a meeting is to undermine Hamas and Syria.

It is essential, if Hamas for many considerations is absent, at least to
have Syria invited, this might help Saudi leaders reconsider joining the
conference. Only then a possibility might arise that some progress is
being made to resolve the conflict.

Dr. Rice, who still has the ear and support of President Bush, should work
internally within the Bush administration, to enlarge Arab participation
especially that of Saudi Arabia and Syria.

The Gaza Crossings

In the next few days, news might be released that the 6,000 Gazans
marooned near the Rafah crossing, are able to go home. All sides are
involved in resolving this tragic humanitarian case that is almost two
months old. A possibility that the Palestinians will enter Israel at
Nitzana on the Egyptian-Israeli border then bussed to the Erez crossing,
to enter eventually the Gaza Strip. This might be a temporary solution,
but in order to prevent both a humanitarian as well as an economic
disaster in the Gaza Strip, all sides have to find a solution to the
complete closure of Gaza.

The government of Dr. Salam Fayyad has taken notice of this problem.
Recently the administration of the Gaza crossings that was run by the
office of the President was transferred to the Ministry of Trade and
Economy. Serious considerations are being discussed to create a separate
National Crossings Authority that will be semi independent and have the
participation of the public and private sector and will be in charge of
all crossings in Gaza as well as in the West Bank. It will be the body
that will be in charge also in the future on the crossings between the PA
and Jordan, as well as the PA and Israel. Dr. Fayyad is working with the
Trade and Economy Minister Kamal Hassouneh on a permanent arrangement, as
progress is developing in the talks that are conducted by Abbas and
Olmert, to return to the security arrangements prior to Sept 28, 2000.
This National Crossings Authority might also be able to resolve with the
involvement of international third parties, the reopening of the Gaza
crossings.

The next few months are packed with developments, little can be done in
August, as most European officials are taking their summer vacations, but
the general expectations are that Dr. Condi Rice, and Special Envoy Tony
Blair, might be able to take little steps but no major breakthrough is
expected in the next two years.

[Mr. Hanna Siniora is the Palestinian Co-CEO of IPCRI – the
Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information  www.ipcri.org]