[NYTr] Another shot in the currency fight: Chinese threaten divestment

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

The Washington Post - Aug 9, 2007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/08/AR2007080802308.html

Another shot in the currency fight: Chinese threaten divestment

By Krissah Williams

In a Wednesday opinion piece in the state-run China Daily, a Chinese
government researcher made what sounded like a warning to U.S.
policymakers not to get too tough in insisting the yuan should
appreciate.

The researcher, He Fan, noted that China has accumulated "a large
sum of U.S. dollars" and that its holdings contribute "a great deal
to maintaining the position of the U.S. dollar as an international
currency." If the yuan's exchange-rate against the dollar does not
remain stable, he said, China could be forced to take strong action.

China has $1.33 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, with $407
billion in U.S. Treasuries, the second-largest holder after Japan.
A substantial selloff of the reserves could spark a recession in
the U.S. economy, which is already experiencing a housing slump,
financial analysts said.

Market analysts read He's statements as the beginning of a more
politicized approach by the Chinese government but said a selloff
is unlikely.

"I don't think that this is a real threat that China is about to
unload its dollar holdings, but merely the mention of it should be
enough to make Congress sit up and take notice," said Simon Derrick,
Bank of New York's chief currency strategist in London.

He's statements were an apparent response to the Senate Finance
Committee, which last month approved legislation aimed at pressing
for faster appreciation of the yuan.

"The Chinese central bank will be forced to sell U.S. dollars once
the [yuan] appreciates dramatically, which might lead to a mass
depreciation of the U.S dollar against other currencies," wrote He,
who works at the China Academy of Social Sciences. While the Chinese
academies are not the official voice of the Chinese government,
researchers' comments often best reflect the mood in Beijing.

The Daily Telegraph of London also quoted Xia Bin, director of the
financial research department of the State Council, which advises
the Chinese cabinet, describing Beijing's foreign reserves as a
"bargaining chip."

If China were to execute the so-called nuclear option, by dumping
U.S. currency and lowering the value of the dollar, it would hurt
its own pocketbook because it is such a large investor. "There would
be turmoil in the financial markets," said Menzie D. Chinn, professor
of economics at the University of Wisconsin. "It's not really a
credible threat."

Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., who met with Chinese leaders
in Beijing last week and told them to raise the currency's value
without delay, called He's comments "frankly absurd," in a CNBC
interview yesterday. "China's economic relationship with the United
States is very important to both countries. It's beneficial for us,
and it is beneficial for them. We have tensions that we have to
deal with on both sides.

"And then another point I've made for some time is the Chinese are
the second-largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, but what the Chinese
hold in treasuries is less than one day's trading volume in treasuries.
We have a broad, liquid market."

Economists echoed Paulson's statements. Nicholas R. Lardy, a senior
fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the
District, said the Chinese researchers are probably attempting to
remind Congress that "this is a relationship of mutual interdependence,
not a one-way street."

Senators sponsoring a bill aimed at forcing China to more quickly
raise the value of its currency by giving the Treasury Department
new tools to pressure Beijing do not see it that way.

They are worried about the large trade deficit between the two
nations. China's trade surplus probably jumped almost 60 percent
in July, widening to $23.1 billion from $14.6 billion a year earlier,
according to a Bloomberg News poll of 18 economists released
yesterday.

Sen. Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., said in a statement that "actions
of this sort by the Chinese show they don't want to play by the
[World Trade Organization's] rules when it might advantage another
country." Sen. Lindsey O. Graham, R-S.C., said in a statement that
he "would advise our Chinese trading partners to work with us to
achieve meaningful currency reform rather than issuing draconian
threats. Congress has been incredibly patient on this issue, and
the consequences of inaction without real reform are too great to
many sectors of our economy."

[Correspondent Ariana Eunjung Cha in Shanghai contributed to this
report.]