[NYTr] What do Palestinians Really Think

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

Electronic Intifada - Aug 27, 2007
http://electronicintifada.net/v2/article8962.shtml

What do Palestinians really think?

by Ali Abunimah

Palestinian poll finds support for Fatah government over Hamas." That
headline from the International Herald Tribune, one of many similar
ones last week, must have warmed the hearts of supporters of the
illegal, unelected and Israeli-backed Ramallah "government" of Salam
Fayyad. Last June Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas
dismissed Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas and the national unity
government he headed, and appointed Fayyad without the legally required
endorsement of the Palestinian legislative council. This followed
Hamas' rout of the US and Israeli-backed militias of Fatah warlord
Mohammed Dahlan in the Gaza Strip.

Does this poll vindicate the US and Israeli strategy of funding and
arming Palestinian collaborator leaders in Ramallah, and Abbas'
strategy of embracing Israel, cracking down on the resistance,
colluding in a cruel siege on his people in Gaza, and refusing all
dialogue with Hamas? A closer look at the poll results as well as the
context suggests the opposite.

The poll's publisher, the Jerusalem Media and Communications Centre
(JMCC), trumpeted that a "majority" of Palestinians "said the
performance of Fayyad's government is better" than that of the
democratically-elected government of Haniyeh who is still the de facto
prime minister despite Abbas' dismissal order.

In fact the results claim 46.5 percent preferring Fayyad's performance
(a plurality not a majority) as against 24.4 percent preferring
Haniyeh's performance since the events in June. (See JMCC poll number
62, August 2007 [www.jmcc.org/new/07/aug/poll.htm])

Still, if true, that would be an impressive achievement for Abbas and
Fayyad. The poll also states that were new legislative elections held,
38 percent would vote for Fatah, while just 24 percent would vote for
Hamas -- with Fatah retaining a lead in both the West Bank and Gaza.

Yet there are good reasons to believe that this poll, like all previous
polls taken by JMCC and other organizations, overestimates support for
Fatah and understates support for Hamas by a wide margin. (Recall that
all the polls erroneously predicted a comfortable win for Fatah in the
January 2006 legislative election, and the 2005 municipal elections).

According to its methodology, this poll included face-to-face
interviews with 1,199 Palestinians in randomly selected households
throughout the West Bank and Gaza. Let us suppose that is the case.

Abbas has effectively declared Hamas illegal and his Israeli-backed
security forces are working alongside Israeli occupation troops to
carry out mass arrests of its supporters. Israel continues to carry out
mass kidnappings and extrajudicial executions of Hamas members and
other Palestinian resistance activists, aided by an extensive network
of collaborators working inside and outside Palestinian official
institutions, and some non-governmental organizations. Under such
circumstances it is not surprising that true support for Hamas (as
measured by secret ballots in elections) has always been much higher
than that to which people are willing to admit in face-to-face
interviews with strangers whose affiliations they cannot easily assess.

Second, when Palestinians are being asked to evaluate "performance" it
is not clear what they are being asked to assess. Does the question
take into account the fact that the democratically-elected Hamas
government was barely able to function from the time it took office in
March 2006 due to the kidnapping of half its cabinet by Israel, the
US-EU-Israeli siege which deprived it of its rightful revenues even to
pay salaries, sabotage by Dahlan's gangs, and since June the total
blockade of Gaza that has virtually shut down its economy? (The latest
ploy was the apparent collusion by Israel, the European Union and Abbas
advisors to cut off Gaza's electricity on the basis of accusations,
denied by a Gaza electricity company official, that Hamas was siphoning
off revenues).

At the same time, Abbas and Fayyad are receiving hundreds of millions
of dollars from their foreign patrons. Not really a fair comparison.
But given their advantages Abbas and Fayyad are doing remarkably poorly
even as measured by the poll.

While 44 percent of Gaza residents polled said their own security
situation has improved since Hamas took over (and 31 percent said it
had gotten worse), only 17 percent of West Bank residents polled say
their security situation has improved living under Abbas and Fayyad,
while 36.5 percent said it had deteriorated.

More than half of those polled were "dissatisfied" with Abbas'
performance, while just a fifth were "very satisfied."

Overall, 26 percent of Palestinians under occupation said the Fayyad
government should be "canceled" and the national unity government
(which had been headed by Haniyeh) restored to office (21 percent in
the West Bank and 34 percent in Gaza). Only 17 percent thought the
Haniyeh government should be "canceled" so that Fayyad could rule over
the West Bank and Gaza (18 percent in the West Bank, 16 percent in
Gaza). Read another way this suggests that just 17 percent of
Palestinians under occupation view the Fayyad government as being the
legitimate authority.

A majority of Palestinians wanted to see a return to dialogue and
national unity -- a rejection of Abbas' intransigent refusal to talk to
Hamas.

Asked which leaders they trust most, Abbas came highest with 18 percent
(17 percent in the West Bank, 20 percent in Gaza). Haniyeh came a close
second at 16 percent (11 percent in West Bank, 25 percent in Gaza).
Salam Fayyad came in fifth at just 3.5 percent, scoring the same in
both territories. Almost a third of Palestinians said they didn't trust
anyone.

Asked who they would vote for in a presidential election, those polled
gave statistically equal support to both Abbas and Haniyeh (21 percent
and 19 percent), while Fayyad got five percent.

If the poll shows weak support for Abbas and Fayyad (and great
disaffection with all political factions), it shows outright rejection
of Abbas' capitulationist approach to peace negotiations with Israel.
Canceling the right of return, allowing Israeli settlements to stay,
and giving up most of Jerusalem in exchange for a Palestinian statelet
on a fraction of the West Bank are reportedly at the heart of the
"agreement of principles" that Abbas is negotiating with Israeli Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert.

Almost 70 percent of Palestinians under occupation, according to the
poll, adhere to the right of "return of all refugees to their original
land." Another 12 percent envisage the return of only some refugees to
their original lands. Just seven percent of those polled agreed with
the position that no refugees should return home at all.

Eighty-two percent opposed allowing Israel to retain control of "major
settlement blocs inside the West Bank in exchange for equal Israeli
land," and 94 percent rejected "keeping Israel's authority in the area
of Al-Aqsa mosque" in Jerusalem.

Peace process industry propagandists routinely claim that a two-state
solution is overwhelmingly supported by the vast majority of
Palestinians. This has never been true (millions of Palestinian
refugees and exiles outside the country have never been included in
elections, and are not regularly polled). This poll indicates that
among Palestinians under occupation, support for a two-state solution
is at just 51 percent (49 percent in the West Bank and 54 percent in
Gaza). At the same time support for "a binational state in all of
Palestine where Palestinians and Israeli [sic] enjoy equal
representation and rights" is now supported by 30 percent (roughly
similar in both territories).

Support for a two-state solution remains remarkably anemic, given the
massive efforts invested in promoting it, while support for a one-state
solution is impressively high and continues to creep upwards despite
the fact that no major political faction or leader has openly endorsed
it and so much effort is invested in discrediting it.

There are legitimate concerns about the methodology of the JMCC poll,
the phrasing of questions and the context. At least one blogger cast
doubt on it because the pollster, Ghassan Khatib, has served numerous
times as a minister in the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority.
[palestinianpundit.blogspot.com/2007/08/fabricating-palestinian-public-opinion.html]

Nevertheless, whatever doubts there are, this poll merely confirms that
Palestinians under occupation remain united on the fundamentals of
their cause. Despite the conspiracy they face to starve and brutalize
them into giving up their rights, the Palestinian people are steadfast
in defending them.

[Ali Abunimah is co-founder of The Electronic Intifada and author of One
Country: A Bold Proposal to End the Israeli-Palestinian Impasse. ]