[NYTr] Cut and run: Bush heralds cut in troops as British forces head for exit

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

The Independent - Sep 4, 2007
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2924388.ece

Cut and run: 

Bush heralds cut in troops as British forces head for exit

By Patrick Cockburn

President George Bush flew into a US airbase in Anbar province in
western Iraq yesterday to announce that recent American military
successes would allow a reduction in the 160,000-strong US force in
Iraq.

He said that, judging by what he had been told by US commander General
David Petraeus and ambassador Ryan Crocker, "it will be possible to
maintain the same level of security with fewer American forces."

Mr Bush chose to visit Anbar because the split between the Sunni tribes
and al-Qai'da in Iraq has led to a sharp reduction in attacks on US
forces in this vast western province which is mostly desert aside from
the Euphrates valley.

The administration has had some success in persuading US public opinion
and media that the military escalation known as "the surge" which
started in February is having a measure of success. Gen Petraeus and Mr
Crocker are to report on the impact of "the surge" when they testify to
Congress on 10 September. Since they will be reporting on their own
efforts it is likely they will report significant progress.

The reduction in American troop numbers Mr Bush suggested is probably
inevitable given the strain Iraq is placing on American military
resources and the public pressure domestically.

Mr Bush flew secretly to al-Asad airbase in Anbar where he met the
Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki whose government has been
criticised by the Democrats in the US and half of whose ministers have
been withdrawn.

Addressing cheering troops, Mr Bush insisted troop withdrawal would be
based on a "calm assessment by military commanders on the ground not a
nervous reaction by Washington politicians to poll results in the
media".

But he said that the province was an example of what could happen in
the rest of Iraq. He had been told a year ago, he said, that the
province was lost. "Today Anbar is really a different place," he said.

In reality, the improvement in the US position in Anbar has nothing to
do with the surge and the deployment of 30,000 extra American troops.
The change in the military situation in the province is a result of a
split in the Sunni guerrilla movement between an al-Qa'ida umbrella
organization called the Islamic State of Iraq and the rest of the Sunni
guerrillas.

The Islamic State of Iraq created widespread anger among the Sunni
community by killing anybody connected with the government, such as
garbage collectors or lowly employees of ministries. They were also
seeking to draft one young man from each Sunni family into their forces.

Bizarrely, the US is now backing and arming Sunni tribal militias who
do not answer to the Iraqi government, while pressing Mr Maliki to
clamp down on the Shia militias, notably the anti-American Mehdi Army
led by Muqtada al-Sadr.

President Bush may be giving a hostage to fortune by claiming a major
success in Anbar because, since the improvement in the military
situation had little to do with the US, the Sunni guerrillas could
compose their differences and resume the offensive.

The administration has been seeking to give the impression that the US
military may at last be turning the corner in Iraq, though Iraqi
politicians in Baghdad believe very little has changed on the ground.

One sign that Iraqis themselves believe security in the country is
getting worse is that the number of Iraqis fleeing their homes in fear
of their lives has risen from 50,000 a month to 60,000 a month
according to the UN High Commission for Refugees. Some 4.2 million
Iraqis are now refugees inside and outside the country.

Although the US has been pressing the Iraqi government to push through
parliament a series of benchmark measures that would supposedly lead to
reconciliation between Sunni, Shia and Kurd the different Iraqi
communities are too frightened of each other to live in the same street
or village.

There are other signs that violence in Iraq is not lessening. Figures
compiled by AP show 1,809 Iraqi civilians were killed in August,
compared with 1,760 in July. There has been a reduction in sectarian
killings in Baghdad but that may be because Mr Sadr stood down the
Mehdi Army, blamed for many of the killings of Sunni civilians, in
February.

The number of US military killed was 81 in August, an increase of two
over July but less than this year's high point of 126 in May. There is
usually reduction in attacks on the US forces at this time of year when
the temperature soars to 120F.

The whole question of civilian casualty figures is, in any case, far
less certain than the Iraqi government claims. In one bomb attack on
the Shia civilian district of Karada on 26 July the police said there
were 25 dead and 100 wounded. But a week later, without any publicity,
municipal andcivil defence workers pinned up the true list on a shop
showing 92 had been killed and 127 wounded.