[NYTr] Ecuador: Correa Plays His Cards Right

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

sent by Steven L. Robinson (activ-l)

Latin America Economonitor - Sep 12, 2007
http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-blog/301/ecuador_correa_plays_his_cards_right

Ecuador: Correa Plays His Cards Right

by Mark Turner

On September 30th Ecuador goes to the polls to vote for an assembly that
will re-write the constitution. A lot of reputations are riding on the
outcome, not least that of Ecuador's head of state. President Rafael
Correa considers the constitutional assembly a vital step in his
administration and has stated his intention to step down if his party,
"Movimiento Pams", cannot control the new 130 seat body. At first sight
it seems that Correa is taking a mighty gamble. A recent poll suggests
that Movimiento Pams will gain just 40 seats in the 130 seat assembly
[1]. However, we believe that the political risk to Correa is minimal
and he will in fact get the result he wants.

In our view, there are several reasons why the president and his newly
formed party will almost certainly win through. Firstly, Correa's track
record in "beat the pollster" is impressive. In 2006's presidential
runoff election against banana magnate Alvaro Ochoa, detailed opinion
polls pointed to a neck-and-neck race right up to the November 26th
polling day. In fact, Correa won with a comfortable 56%. Then on April
15th this year, Ecuador again voted on whether the constitutional
assembly elections should go ahead in a simple "yes/no" referendum.
Again, opinion polls said the result would be close. This time, a
veritable landslide 81% voted in Correa's favour. Why pollsters seem to
get him wrong is debatable. Some say that the polling companies are
somewhat biased towards the traditional powers that Correa is battling
against. Others note they don't seem to survey very deeply in rural
areas and low income neighbourhoods. But for whatever reason, Correa
has so far outperformed expectations and it would be no surprise to see
the same phenomenon this time around.

The next reason to back success for Movimiento Pams lies with Correa
himself. Although his honeymoon period approval ratings of up to 76%
have ostensibly slipped to the mid 50s, his main policy thrusts of
social equality and the rooting out of corruption are still extremely
popular. His direct, even confrontational style and left-leaning social
policies have made him enemies in Ecuadorian society ranks, but the
wider population sees him as strong, honest and a refreshing change.
Correa, via his party, has sent out a clear message to the electorate.
With control of the assembly, Correa will dissolve Ecuador's single
house congress and send what he calls that "sewer of corruption"
packing. This is the policy statement that served him well in the votes
of the last 12 months and we firmly believe that this "anti-fatcat"
policy still enjoys overwhelming popular support. In short, it's a
winning play.

Dynamics of the September 30th vote also favor the government. Up and
down Ecuador, there are over 3000 candidates running for a mere 130
assembly seats. As well as organized political parties and established
politicians, this number includes local TV celebrities, indigenous
leaders and suchlike. The 3000-plus candidates are running on a mind
boggling total of 486 different tickets (typically known as "lists" in
LatAm electoral systems), and with every party comes a different set of
proposals that have turned the election into a confusing morass of
ideas. This, we believe, will play into the hands of Correa. When
presented with a long list of candidates and parties, many Ecuadorians
will plump for a party or symbol they know. Correa has been prominent
on the hustings and in all Movimiento Pams media propaganda, and will
gather favour from many who are still not sure about what the vote is
all about. Surveys [2] suggest that up to 80% of voters still undecided
on who to support and 70% of voters say they will opt for a single
"list" when voting (presumably voting for a single party and not for
different personalities from different tickets). And perhaps at this
point it is worth mentioning that the European Union is sending 130
official observers to ensure the free and fair vote that everyone
expects.

Meanwhile, Movimiento Pais has rapidly evolved into a fully-fledged
political machine. It has a clear identity and straightforward messages
that go down well with amongst a populace that are not the most
politically sophisticated. His opposition are often lacking in these
respects. An example of this was a recent anecdote from political
consultant Jaime Duran Barba (an influential hired gun political
advisor for aspiring South American politicians, a sort of southern
hemisphere version of James Carville). In a recent interview, he spoke
of being invited to a policy meeting for a newly formed party hoping
for seats in the assembly. When he asked on what issues they were
seeking election, he was told that they weren't not sure yet and in
fact they'd asked him along to help decide what to offer people. Duran
likened them to a boy scouts meeting.

Finally, Correa's "all or nothing" gamble on control of the assembly
isn't quite as risky as it first seems. Although he hasn't stated it
out loud, he has been careful in how he words his resignation threats
and as long as he is able to control the new assembly via alliances
with other assembly members and parties he will surely stay on as
president. Even if Movimiento Pams falls short of the 66 seats needed
for outright control, they are a lock for the biggest block of seats in
the new assembly and will be able to form alliances with other members
and parties to gain a controlling majority. We would expect factions
such as indigenous groups and other left wing political parties to join
forces with Correa.

When all is said and done, we expect President Correa to achieve his
aims and put his chances of a direct party majority in the assembly at
around 50/50. However, we would be extremely surprised if he cannot do
the deals needed for an alliance that will take firm grip on the
constitutional assembly. After a prolonged period of political
instability that has seen 7 presidents come and go in the space of just
10 years, Correa has been smart in the way he has consolidated his
mandate from the population and insulated himself against his sworn
enemies inside the establishment. Once he has control of the
constitutional assembly, he will have the institutional stability that
will add momentum to his push for a more socially equitable Ecuador.

End Notes:

[1]http://www.milenio.com/index.php/2007/09/06/117571/

[2]http://www.elcomercio.com/noticiaEC.asp?id_noticia=135149&id_seccion=3