[NYTr] Circles Robinson: Will Fidel Seek Re-election?

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

Circles Robinson Online - Sep 23, 3007
http://circlesonline.blogspot.com/2007/09/will-cubas-fidel-castro-seek-reelection.html

Will Cuba’s Fidel Castro Seek Reelection?

by Circles Robinson

The process that will determine whether Fidel Castro continues as the
President of Cuba gets underway with nationwide municipal elections on
October 21, 2007.

It’s election time again in Cuba and whether the revolution’s
detractors in Washington and Miami like it or not, the vast majority of
the population is expected to go to the polls to select their city
council representatives and set the wheels in motion to elect the
President, VPs and Legislature.

The biggest question abroad, and on many people’s minds at home, is
whether the recovering Fidel Castro, who temporarily stepped down from
his responsibilities nearly 14 months ago, will once again be a
candidate for another 5-year term as president.

During his convalescence, Castro has become a prolific newspaper
columnist, sounding like an elder statesman reflecting on current and
past world affairs.

To be reelected, Fidel must first win a seat in the Cuban parliament in
general elections scheduled for spring 2008.

Once the 609-member legislature is elected by popular vote, they will
elect a 31-member Council of State from within their ranks. Then the
Council of State chooses the country’s President and VPs. This system
has been in place since 1976 with reforms made in 1992.

Voting age in Cuba is sixteen and registration is automatic. Balloting
is secret and the vote count is open to the public including foreign
visitors. Voter turnout has consistently been over 90 percent and
despite active campaigns launched from Miami encouraging Cubans to
leave their ballots blank or spoil them, in the last two elections only
5.3 (2003) and 5.1 percent (2005) of ballots were invalid.

For a more detailed explanation on the Cuban electoral system see:
http://www.cuba-solidarity.org.uk/faqdocs/Cuban-political-system-facts.pdf

FIDEL ON CUBAN TV

The Cuban leader reappeared in a lengthy TV interview broadcast Friday
in which he warned of a pending world economic crisis. His nearly two-
hour meeting with Angolan President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos on Saturday
reinforced the notion of his recovery.

Seeing an alert and healthier looking 81-year-old Fidel, after a three-
month absence from the public eye, was uplifting for many Cubans on the
island and yet another pitcher of cold water over the heads of his
opponents in Miami.

My 92-year-old neighbor, an avid reader, news watcher and radio soap
opera fan, says Fidel is like family to her. She was all smiles after
seeing him converse with Cuban journalist Randy Alonso. Abuela
(grandma), as we call her, says she remembers very well what Cuba was
like before the 1959 revolution.

For most Cubans, Fidel’s stature as a world leader and the successes of
the revolution far outweigh any tactical errors along the way of
governing the nation of 11.2 million people. His intense concern about
world affairs and keeping tabs on national matters even during his
prolonged convalescence reinforces that recognition.

Nonetheless, many doubt that Fidel will seek reelection, citing his age
and prolonged public absence from the day-to-day business of
government. His public role as a senior statesman, foreign affairs
expert and private advisor on domestic issues has paved the road for a
smooth transition -- seen as an attractive alternative to many citizens.

The foreign media speculates at length over possible presidential
choices if Fidel Castro were to decline reelection. These include Raul
Castro, the nation’s First VP and current acting president; Council of
State VP Carlos Lage Davila; Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque; and
Parliament Chairman Ricardo Alarcon. The subject is not broached in the
local press.

Without seeking a high-profile role during Fidel’s convalescence, Raul
Castro has given the nation a glimpse of his leadership style and
people are getting used to it. Most are content with his call for
increased debate and a focus on domestic issues.

If Fidel’s doctors give him a clean bill of health in the coming
months, allowing him to resume all or a good portion of his
responsibilities, it would then be the president’s call on what he
thinks is best for the country, the driving force of his entire
political career.