[NYTr] Correa foes fragmented before Ecuador assembly vote

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

Reuters - Sep 27, 2007
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2732375020070927

Correa foes fragmented before Ecuador assembly vote

by Patrick Markey

Quito  - Rolling through Quito in a white campaign truck, ousted
Ecuadorean president Lucio Gutierrez chants his party's message into a
microphone like a mantra: vote for us against soaring prices, communism
and tyranny.

Foes are eager to brand President Rafael Correa a demagogue and
investor's nightmare, but that may not keep him from winning a majority
on Sunday in a new assembly he says should dissolve Congress and curb
the country's traditional elites with a new constitution.

"If Correa wins in a fair vote we will be the first to recognize that,"
Gutierrez told Reuters as he waved from his open-bed truck. "We will not
support projects for people to stay in power, totalitarian projects and
communist projects."

The leftist Correa is still riding high in popularity after his reform
message propelled him to the presidency last year in a country where
many are fed up with traditional parties blamed for instability that
has toppled three presidents in a decade.

The U.S.-educated, former economy minister now wants to secure a
majority in the 130-member assembly to purge Ecuador's courts and
institutions of party influence and push through key bills that have
been blocked by Congress.

Opponents have raised the specter of Correa copying his ally Venezuela
President Hugo Chavez, who used a similar assembly in 1999 to shore up
presidential powers that six years later helped set his OPEC nation on a
socialist path.

Correa's talk about a new socialism and foreign debt restructuring has
worried investors.

But while opposition parties clashed with Correa over the assembly, they
remain splintered, handing his Alianza Pais movement an advantage in
securing a 66-seat majority it needs to pass constitutional reforms,
analysts said.

"I don't see other national leaders who can challenge him," said Felipe
Burbano, a political analyst in Quito. "The opposition has weakened in
recent months, ceding ground."

FREE MARKET VS SOCIALISM

Many Ecuadoreans say they are confused over the 3,224 candidates, the
flood of proposals and a complex proportional representation system for
assigning seating in the national assembly, which is set to debate for
six months.

Gutierrez has emerged as a leading opposition figure after his brother
Gilmar won a surprising third place in last year's election. Barred from
political office due to past campaign irregularities, he is campaigning
for his brother, who is his Patriotic Society Party's (PSP's) key
assembly candidate.

A former army officer ousted in 2005 by street protests and unruly
lawmakers, Gutierrez has a strong following among poor Ecuadoreans who
still remember his presidency for its economic subsidies to keep food
and fuel prices low.

The PSP could secure around 39 seats, but will work independently of
other parties to promote investment and political stability, he said.

Banana tycoon Alvaro Noboa, who lost to Correa in last year's election,
has also tried to distance himself from the traditional parties and
play up his business experience.

Ecuador's richest man, Noboa handed out cash and wheelchairs to the
poor in the presidential vote. But stricter campaign rules have
curtailed his donations this year.

"May God pay you, because we're not able to," one of his Prian party
candidates said at a rally after Noboa landed in a helicopter on a
soccer field in a poor Quito neighborhood.

Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot, head of the country's largest party, the
Social Christians, could prove a new rallying point for the opposition
although he is not himself a candidate.

"There is a vacuum in the opposition," said political analyst Walter
Spurrier. "Nebot is the last opposition hope, but while Correa enjoys
the support he has and does not make any huge mistakes it will be
difficult for the opposition."