[NYTr] Ukraine: An "Orange" Coalition? Rivals Claim Electoral Victory

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

AP via The Guardian - Oct 2, 2007
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6964306,00.html

Rivals Claim Victory in Ukraine Poll

By MARIA DANILOVA
Associated Press Writer

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) - The reunited parties of Ukraine' tumultuous Orange
Revolution had a strong combined lead Tuesday in the vote count from
this weekend's parliamentary elections, increasing the possibility the
fractious parties could hammer together a ruling majority.

Hopes for co-majority by President Viktor Yushchenko and the
charismatic opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko were still tenuous,
though, after a better-than-expected performance of smaller parties
that could side with their rival.

Yushchenko and Tymoshenko declared themselves winners of Sunday's vote
and put forward plans for forming a new Cabinet. But Prime Minister
Viktor Yanukovych, whom they want to unseat, also claimed victory.

The uncertainty raised fears that the ex-Soviet republic could face a
replay of the political tug-of-war that Yushchenko wanted to end by
agreeing to the early vote.

With just over 94 percent of the ballots counted, Yanukovych's Party of
Regions was leading with 34.2 percent, while Tymoshenko's bloc followed
with 30.8 percent. Yushchenko's party had 14.3 percent.

A handful of the Verkhovna Rada's 450 seats could go to three minor
parties that performed better than expected. Two seem certain to join
Yanukovych's party, though one, the Socialists, is still on the brink
of a 3-percent threshold of getting into parliament.

The third party, whose affiliation is less clear, could emerge as a
kingmaker by joining either an Orange alliance or Yanukovych in a
fragile coalition.

Another important issue is that Yushchenko and Tymoshenko - heroes of
the popular protests that overturned the rigged 2004 presidential
election - have long been estranged and there is no guarantee they
could patch up their differences if they should win a combined majority.

Any party or coalition requires an absolute majority of at least 226
seats to govern.

Tymoshenko was quick to celebrate her victory, but stayed out of the
public eye Monday as the vote count showed that Yanukovych could
potentially rival the Orange team if he lures the smaller parties over
to his side.

Yanukovych said the Orange parties were too quick to claim victory and
that the election gave him ``carte blanche'' to stay at the helm.

``We won and I am convinced that we will again form a government of
national trust and unity,'' he told thousands of supporters on Monday
who gathered at Kiev's Independence Square, the center of the 2004 mass
protests.

He added that he was ready to share some power with other parties: ``We
are capable of forming a broad coalition headed by the Party of
Regions.''

Adding to the uncertainty was the slow count of results from
Russian-speaking eastern and southern regions, where Yanukovych
traditionally draws support, prompting some to suspect fraud.

Yushchenko ordered an investigation, warning that ``those forces who
aspire to get into parliament with the help of machinations'' will be
punished.

After the initial vote in 2004 that was won by Yanukovych, Yushchenko
and the charismatic, golden-tressed Tymoshenko inspired thousands of
protesters to protest. Yushchenko won a court-ordered rerun and named
Tymoshenko his prime minister, replacing Yanukovych, the prime minister
who was openly backed by the Kremlin.

But the Yushchenko and Tymoshenko fell out and Tymoshenko was fired
after just seven months. Infighting opened the way for Yanukovych to
return as prime minister last year.

Even if the Orange team can form a majority coalition, the alliance may
be shaky.

The two parties have already agreed on how to divide up Cabinet
portfolios - a deal that would make Tymoshenko premier.

Tymoshenko reaffirmed on Monday her ambitions to run for president in
2009, underlining a key obstacle in forming a lasting coalition.
Yushchenko has not said whether he would seek another presidential
term, but he is widely expected to run.

``Two leaders aiming for the same presidential seat make the Orange
coalition quite unstable,'' said Mykhailo Pohrebinsky, an independent
political analyst.

Yanukovych has hinted his party could protest against a fraudulent vote
- a potential role reversal from 2004. But the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe gave a largely favorable assessment
of Sunday's vote.

The election was conducted ``mostly in line with international
commitments and standards for democratic elections,'' the OSCE observer
mission said.

[Associated Press writers Yuras Karmanau and Vladimir Isachenkov
contributed to this report from Kiev. ]