[NYTr] Election: Beirutis Sense They Won't Be the Winners

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

The New York Times - Nov 17, 2007
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/17/world/middleeast/17lebanon.html

As Presidential Vote Nears, 
Beirut’s Residents Sense They Won’t Be the Winners

By NADA BAKRI

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Nov. 16 — Mireille Adas took part in a march through
downtown Beirut this week, demanding that Hezbollah end its yearlong
occupation of the city’s commercial center. Her jewelry shop, steps
away from the organization’s tent camp, has suffered major losses as a
result of the power struggle between Hezbollah and the government,
which has paralyzed the capital and brought Lebanese politics to a
standstill for nearly a year.

Like most Lebanese, Ms. Adas has felt new heights of anxiety as the
clock counted down to next Friday’s deadline for the country to choose
a new president. Hezbollah and the pro-Western governing coalition have
faced off in a game of brinkmanship over the selection of a president,
the head of state, making no visible progress during two months of
crisis negotiations that began when Parliament met to elect a president
on Sept. 25 and promptly disbanded for lack of a quorum of two-thirds
of its members.

Echoing many politicians and analysts here, Ms. Adas worries that the
Friday deadline is likely to bring one of two outcomes, either of them
bad: a deal that prolongs the current standoff, extending a long period
of stagnation and malaise, or a catastrophic head-on clash between the
governing coalition and the opposition led by Hezbollah, the Islamist
Shiite faction.

On Thursday the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, visited
Beirut and called for more talks among politicians across the divide.
Earlier this week, Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner of France shuttled
among Lebanese leaders trying to strike a deal that would end this
Mediterranean country’s deepest political crisis since its civil war
ended in 1990.

Until a few weeks ago, an odd sense of routine prevailed. Only now has
the political elite started to act with urgency.

The president, Émile Lahoud, must step down on Friday, and a Parliament
session to elect a successor is scheduled for Wednesday. So far, there
is little public optimism that a deal will be reached, though there
have been intense negotiations, with many foreign officials visiting
Beirut.

Negotiators could craft a constitutional dodge that would extend the
term of Mr. Lahoud, who is an ally of Hezbollah, and of the pro-Western
government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. But the government, which
wields a slim majority in Parliament, has threatened to elect a new
president with a simple majority — if it cannot cut a deal with
Hezbollah.

Lebanese analysts predict that, if that happened, the opposition could
take to the streets, name a rival government or take up arms against
the government.

Ms. Adas, 25, said she wondered every morning if the day would bring a
solution or push the city into chaos. “I want to know if I will go back
home tonight or no,” she said, worrying that strife could cut
neighborhoods apart as it did during 15 years of civil war.

She takes no comfort from the radio bulletins that she obsessively
tunes in to every 15 minutes in her shop.

The crisis is defined as a power struggle between the Hezbollah-led
opposition, supported by Iran and Syria, and the governing coalition,
backed by the United States, France and Saudi Arabia.

The government has framed the presidential battle as a question of how
much say Syria should continue to have in Lebanese politics; Syria
ended its 29-year occupation of the country in 2005, but continues to
exert widespread influence.

Meanwhile Hezbollah and its allies, including the Maronite Christian
leader Michel Aoun, argue that the current impasse is really over
whether Lebanon should stand up to Israel and crack down on corruption.

But the more intractable dispute is over the country’s political
future. Can the existing, largely feudal, parties, dominated in most
cases by a single family, continue to control political life? How much
influence should foreign countries have over the government? Should
Hezbollah be allowed to have its own militia, independent of the
Lebanese Army, and should Lebanon actively fight Israel?

A United Nations Security Council resolution has called for the
disarmament of all Lebanese militant groups. The United States and the
Lebanese government say that any new president should be committed to
United Nations resolutions.

But the Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech last
week that the group would not give up its weapons despite international
demands. Parliamentarians from Hezbollah and its allied parties said in
interviews that they would agree to a presidential candidate only if he
would not try to disarm Hezbollah — a key demand of the government,
backed by United Nations resolutions.

“A president to execute international resolutions will not help
Lebanon,” said Marwan Fares, a member of the opposition in Parliament.

How Lebanon resolves the presidential crisis will determine how it
navigates its fragile status as the regional battleground in a proxy
war between the West and Iran, said Sateh Noureddine, a columnist for a
pro-opposition daily, As-Safir.

“The question is whether to let the country fall back under Syria’s
hegemony or resist at any price,” Mr. Noureddine said. “It will create
a big change in the region. It will define the relationship between the
West and Iran and Syria.”

France has stepped up its efforts in recent weeks to find a compromise
candidate acceptable to rival leaders. In addition to Mr. Kouchner,
several other top European and Arab officials have visited Beirut.

If an agreement is not reached by Wednesday, opposition lawmakers say
they will boycott the parliamentary session, preventing the two-thirds
quorum needed to elect a president.

The governing coalition contends that it can elect a president with a
simple majority. But many here believe that the selection of a
president without a comprehensive deal could prompt the opposition to
set up its own parallel government, dividing the country and possibly
igniting factional violence.

If Parliament fails to elect a president by the constitutional
deadline, power will automatically be handed over to Mr. Siniora’s
government. But officials close to Mr. Siniora claim that he opposes an
interim government.

The opposition already considers his government illegitimate since all
the Shiite ministers resigned last November. Lebanon’s power-sharing
system is divided among sects: the prime minister must be a Sunni, the
Parliament speaker a Shiite and the president a Maronite Christian.

“So no compromise and a government that does not want to take over
power leaves us with either vacuum and its dangers, or election with a
simple majority,” said Elias Atallah, a member of the majority bloc in
Parliament.