[NYTr] Bloomberg on Venez Constitutional Referendum

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

sent by Dave Muller - southnews

Bloomberg - Dec 2, 2007
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPuajUZE1.2Y&refer=home


Chavez Push for Socialist Constitution Goes to Venezuela Voters

By Matthew Walter and Steven Bodzin

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's bid to
overhaul the state and possibly stay in power for life will be decided
today as his proposal to revamp the nation's constitution goes to the
voters.

The two-part referendum will determine the fate of 69 articles of the 
constitution that would grant Chavez sweeping new powers to expropriate 
private property, create federal territories and control the central 
bank. The country's 16.1 million registered voters will also weigh 
shortening the work day to six hours from eight and boosting pension 
payments.

Four months after Chavez, 53, unveiled his plan to write a constitution 
that would quicken his ``Bolivarian revolution,'' some polls show the 
referendum is too close to call. Opposition parties, student groups and 
even some former allies have campaigned against the proposal, raising 
the possibility Chavez will see his first electoral defeat since taking 
office in 1999.

``Chavez is the latest example of a head of state who believes he's the 
only person who can run a Latin American country effectively,'' said 
David Scott Palmer, a political science and international relations 
professor at Boston University. He is ``moving to consolidate power to 
run the country the way he thinks it needs to be run.''

Statistical Tie

Some pollsters including Caracas-based Hinterlaces and Consultores 21 
say surveys show a statistical tie among those who've decided to vote, 
said Luis Christiansen, president of Consultores 21. Most of those 
considering abstention would vote against the measure, he said. It's 
illegal to publish polls in the week before an election.

``Any growth in participation will be almost exclusively for the no 
vote,'' Christiansen told reporters yesterday in Caracas.

The elections regulator is expected to announce the results after polls 
close at 3 p.m. New York time.

Demonstrations against the proposal turned violent at times over the 
past three months. Police regularly used tear gas and water cannons to 
control crowds protesting in the streets. Hundreds of thousands of 
Venezuelans, both Chavez supporters and opposition groups, flooded the 
streets of Caracas during the final days of the campaign last week.

`End of Exclusion'

Chavez stepped up attacks against the U.S., foreign investors and the 
media in the final days of the campaign.

He told tens of thousands of supporters at a Nov. 30 rally that he's 
prepared to cut off exports of oil to the U.S., Venezuela's biggest 
trading partner, should the U.S. government try to stir up violence in 
the country after the vote. The president also said he may nationalize 
Spanish banks operating in the country to defend the ``dignity'' of 
Venezuela, prompting cheers from the crowd.

Chavez made the threats after Spanish King Juan Carlos I told him to 
``shut up'' at a summit in Chile earlier this month.

Ravin Azuaje, 58, a full-time activist for a pro-government community 
group in a Caracas working class neighborhood, said passage of the 
referendum will result in ending the rule of ``oligarchs'' and putting 
control of the state and its resources in the hands of the common
people.

``This marks the end of exclusion as we knew it in this country,'' 
Azuaje said in an interview yesterday. He gave up his business selling 
pizzas and sandwiches on the street to work for the group, the 
city-supported Che Guevara Revolutionary Community Council.

Shortages, Inflation

Economists say the changes to the constitution would curb private 
investment and slow growth in Venezuela, South America's third-biggest 
economy and its biggest oil exporter. Inflation, already the highest in 
the region, may accelerate, according to Jose Guerra, a former head of 
research at the central bank.

The most likely impact would be increased shortages of food staples
like milk, eggs and meat, said Eduardo Gomez Sigala, President of 
Conindustria, the biggest Venezuelan lobbying group for the 
manufacturing industry.

``If the passage of this referendum is another signal of the 
continuation of the current policy mix, then the most likely outcome is 
an intensification of the most pressing problems afflicting this 
country's economy,'' Gomez Sigala, a former executive of Corimon SA, a 
paint maker, said in an interview.

Chavez said last week that if voters approve his plan, he's prepared to 
stay in power until 2050.

``It's still too early for me to go,'' he said. ``I'll give my life for 
Venezuela until the last day.''