[NYTr] Avnery on Tzipi Livni: The Case of the White Bird

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

Gush-Shalom - Jan 5, 2008
http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery/1199602046


The Case of the White Bird

by Uri Avnery

TZIPI LIVNI, as her name indicates, is the white bird of Israeli
politics (Tzipi is short for Tzipora, "bird", and Livni comes from
Lavan, "white"). As against the hawk Binyamin Netanyahu, the vulture
Ehud Barak and the raven Ehud Olmert, she was seen as the immaculate
feathered friend.

In public opinion polls, she has enjoyed a remarkable popularity. She
trumps all the other politicians in the governing coalition. While the
rating of the two Ehuds - Olmert and Barak - was going down, hers was
on the way up.

Why? Perhaps it was a case of the wish being the father of the thought.
It is generally accepted that in the present Knesset no coalition could
be set up without Kadima. Therefore, if one wants to throw Olmert out
while avoiding new elections, Olmert's substitute must also come from
Kadima. Livni is the only creditable candidate.

Still there is something odd about Livni's popularity. Up to now, she
has not been faced with a serious test. She has never borne any real
executive responsibility. She has been only a mediocre Minister of
Justice.

Her public image is indeed impressive. She seems to be honest, a rare
attribute for a politician. She looks wise. She looks courageous.

But anyone who studies her record must regretfully come to the opposite
conclusion. Tzipi Livni is far from courageous and far from wise.

THAT BECAME CLEAR a year ago, after the Second Lebanon War.

It seemed that public anger over the failed war would topple Olmert.
Livni jumped at the opportunity. In a dramatic move she called for the
resignation of the Prime Minister and offered herself as his successor.
It was leaked that soon after the beginning of the war, she had already
called for its termination (which did not prevent her from voting for
all of Olmert's moves.)

A courageous act, even if not very wise. Because very soon it became
clear that public anger was subsiding rapidly. The protest movement
petered out. Olmert, with the skin of an elephant and the cunning of a
fox, just kept his head down and survived. He shook off the interim
report of the Commission of Inquiry (the Winograd Report) as a dog
sheds water. The day after the attempted putsch, Livni found herself
alone in a political vacuum.

What does a courageous politician do in such a situation? Resign, of
course. Join the opposition, exhort, admonish, preach at the gate like
the prophets of yore.

But Livni did not do any of this. She just muttered some noncommittal
words, folded her arms and remained in the cabinet. Like most of our
politicians, she paraphrases Descartes: "I am a minister - ergo I
exist."

As a minister, she continues to bear "collective responsibility" for
all the acts and defaults of a government headed by the very person she
herself has described as incompetent.

So much for courage. As for wisdom: if she was not certain about her
ability to unseat Olmert, why did she start this escapade in the first
place? And if she was not prepared to resign, why did she play at
rebellion?

Olmert could have dismissed her. But he is much too clever. Better to
have her in the tent spitting out, than outside spitting in. Since then
he has lavished her with praise and paid her compliments at every
opportunity. What a successful Foreign Minister! What a wise diplomat!

THE LAST few days showed just how successful a Foreign Minister and how
wise a diplomat Tzipi Livni really is.

It began with her appearance in the Foreign and Security Committee of
the Knesset. In the distant past, that was a closed forum. But nowadays
it resembles a sieve with very large holes indeed. Every word spoken
there is leaked even before the speaker has closed his mouth - mostly
by the assistants of the speakers themselves.

In this forum, Livni said that the Egyptians were cheating on their
commitment to stop the smuggling of arms into the Gaza Strip. She
demanded they mend their ways and put an end to this traffic.

It was not just a verbal complaint. It had practical implications: in
the US Congress, there is an ongoing campaign to punish Egypt by
cutting the huge package of financial aid it gets from the US. True,
the Israeli Foreign Office does not associate itself openly with this
demand, but everybody in Washington knows that in matters like this,
the US Congress is not much more than an instrument of Israeli policy.
Members of the Knesset roam the corridors of the Capitol and lobby for
the cut. They may belong to the right-wing opposition, but they are
clearly acting as emissaries of the Foreign Office.

To reinforce this effort, the Israeli government has distributed a
video cassette around Washington showing Egyptian policemen standing
passively by while the smuggling goes on under their very noses.

No wonder that Cairo considered Livni's remarks as another exercise of
blackmail against Egypt: if you don't comply with our demands, we shall
hit you in your most sensitive spot - the pocket.

IT IS HARD to imagine a more foolish policy. Anyone who knows anything
about Egypt - and there are such people even in the Foreign Office -
would be aware that this is not just about hitting the pocket, but also
the heart. Not just a matter of money, but also of pride.

Every year Egypt gets more American money than any other country on
earth - except Israel, of course. And not for nothing: it started when
Egypt signed the peace agreement with Israel. The enemies of the
Egyptian regime call it a bribe for serving Israeli interests.

No country is more sensitive about its honor than Egypt. Its leaders
regularly remind everybody - and, indeed, its foreign minister reminded
Tzipi Livni this week - that the Egyptian state has existed for 7000
years, and is not prepared to be lectured by Israel (which was not even
there 60 years ago.)

Egypt lives in a painful contradiction: it sees itself as the cradle of
human civilization and the center of the Arab world, but it is a very
poor country and needs every dollar it can get. Hosni Mubarak's regime
is totally dependent on the United States, but desperately craves the
respect of 70 million Egyptians and hundreds of millions of other Arabs.

That demands subtlety, even finesse. The accumulated experience of
thousands of years has prepared the Egyptian diplomats for such a task.
They never say "no", but "Yes, quite, but the moment is not
appropriate" or "good idea, we shall consider it with utmost
seriousness". Those who understand, understand. No wonder that Egyptian
diplomats look upon their unsophisticated Israeli counterparts with
thinly veiled contempt.

Tzipi Livni entered this porcelain shop like an elephant.

WHY DID she do it? The political correspondents, most of whom are
merely reporters of political gossip, assume that the motive was
personal: she spoke on the eve of Ehud Barak's meeting with Mubarak.
Her real aim was to spoil it for Barak.

Perhaps she saw it as an opportunity to polish her image. For weeks
now, the security establishment has been running a public relations
campaign concerning the arms in the Gaza Strip. Its agents in the media
tell us every day about the quantities of arms and explosives that are
flowing into the Strip from Egypt through the tunnels under the border.
The Egyptians are accused of closing their eyes. Livni wanted to ride
this crest.

Livni's problem is common to all of Israel: the inability and
unwillingness to see the point of view of the other side, especially if
the other side is Arab. (The other side has, of course, a similar
problem.)

The Egyptians consider themselves the natural leaders of the Arab
world. President Mubarak and his followers are very sensitive to the
accusations of their enemies - especially the Muslim Brotherhood - that
they are serving the Israeli occupation at a time when Israel is
starving the Gaza population and killing their leaders. Mubarak has no
wish to do anything against Hamas that would seem to confirm these
charges.

It is quite possible that the Egyptian authorities would be unable to
prevent the traffic even if they wanted to. Most of the smuggled items
are unobtainable in the besieged Gaza Strip, from milk powder to
cigarettes. The smugglers can do business with the Sinai Bedouins or
bribe the Egyptian policemen - who most certainly do not cherish the
idea of stabbing their Arab brothers in the back while they are
fighting against the Israeli occupation.

The Israeli public lives in a bubble. They cannot imagine that the same
people who they know as "terrorists" are the heroes of the Arab world,
that the detested "murderers" are the holy martyrs of the Arabs, that
the "terrorism" is seen by the Arabs (and not only by them) as a heroic
resistance to a monstrous occupation, that the "smugglers" are seen by
the Arabs the same way as we saw "our fine boys" of the Palmach who
smuggled arms under the noses of the British and risked their lives in
order to break the blockade.

In the eyes of the Egyptians - and, indeed, of all Arabs - the
Palestinian people are defending themselves against a brutal oppressor.
The Palestinian martyrs restore the honor of the entire Arab nation.
Even the Egyptians who support Mubarak and believe that there is no
choice but to cooperate with the Americans and to keep the peace with
Israel are torn between conflicting emotions.

If one does not understand the psychological and political dilemma of
the Egyptian people, one is liable to do foolish things. And nothing
could be more foolish than the Israeli action against those returning
from the Hajj last week.

THE PILGRIMAGE to Mecca is, as everybody knows, one of the five pillars
of Islam. A person starting on this voyage, with all its hardships, is
much respected by all Muslims.

The million and a half inhabitants of the Gaza strip are prevented from
fulfilling this duty, unless they undergo a "security check" by the
Israeli army, often accompanied by harassment and humiliation. On
Israel's demand, the Egyptians have closed the only border station that
connects the Gaza Strip with the outside world: the Rafah crossing.

Two thousand pilgrims from Gaza have broken this blockade and crossed
the Rafah border. It seems that the Egyptians cooperated, either openly
or by closing their eyes. Indeed, how can an Egyptian leader block the
path of devout Muslims on their way to fulfill one of the holiest
duties? But the chiefs of the Israeli security establishment were
furious.

The problem became worse when the pilgrims were on their way back from
Mecca. When their ferry reached the Sinai shore, Israel demanded that
the Egyptians block the Rafah crossing and compel the pilgrims to
return through Israeli territory. This would have delivered Hamas
members and other "wanted" people into the hands of the Israeli
Security Service.

For the Egyptians, that was an altogether intolerable demand. If they
had acceded to it, they would have looked to the whole Muslim world
like collaborators who had turned over to the Jews pious Muslims
returning from the holy Hajj.

The end was foreseeable: the Egyptians allowed all the pilgrims to
return through Rafah. The Israeli government had scored an own goal.

All this would not have happened if the Foreign Minister had persuaded
her colleagues to close their eyes and shut up. She didn't. They would
not have listened to her anyhow.

Something tells me that this white bird will not be flying very far.