[NYTr] Crashing Economy: Merrill Lynch Admits US in "Recession"

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

[If they admit a "recession," it's the begining of depression. - NYTr]

National Business Review, New Zealand - Jan 8, 2008
http://www.nbr.co.nz/home/column_article.asp?id=19824&cid=4&cname=Business+Today

Merrill Lynch calls US recession

by Nevil Gibson

Wall Street bank Merrill Lynch, which has changed its chief executive 
and written off billions of dollars in losses from subprime lending,
has broken from the pack and declared the US in recession for the first
time in 16 years.

Its chief economist for North America, David Rosenberg, says last
week's poor unemployment statistics (a two-year high) and weak
Christmas spending have tipped the world's biggest economy over the
brink.

"According to our analysis, this [recession] isn't even a forecast any 
more but is a present day reality," he says, pointing to the four key 
barometers used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) - 
employment, real personal income, industrial production, and real sales 
activity in retail and manufacturing.

He says these "seem to have peaked around the November-December period, 
strongly suggesting that we are actually into the first month of a 
recession."

His view is at odds with some other forecasts on Wall Street. For 
example, Lehman Brothers has issued 10 reasons why the US economy will 
not enter into a recession.

"This isn't about 'labels,'" Mr Rosenberg says. "What is important
about recessions is that while each may have its own set of particular 
characteristics, there are also unmistakable investment patterns that 
emerge time and time again."