[NYTr] Analysis: NH win resurrects McCain bid

[All the News That Doesn't Fit]

AP via Yahoo - Jan 8, 2008 21:30 ET
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080109/ap_po/primary_gop_analysis


Analysis: NH win resurrects McCain bid

By LIBBY QUAID

Don't ever count out John McCain.

By winning New Hampshire on Tuesday, McCain resurrected a campaign left
for dead last summer. It was the consummate comeback for a comeback
specialist, a survivor who weathered more than five years in a Vietnam
POW camp, multiple plane crashes, a wrenching congressional scandal and
three bouts with aggressive skin cancer.

For rival Mitt Romney, McCain's resurgence was a searing loss, another
second-place finish for a campaign that had anticipated back-to-back
wins in Iowa and New Hampshire and spent tens of millions of dollars
more than other Republicans.

Now McCain has a chance to reshape a remarkably fluid, crowded race for
the GOP nomination.

The Arizona senator faces competition for the next contest Jan. 15 in
Michigan, where Romney was raised and his father was governor.

However, McCain won there when he ran against George W. Bush in 2000,
and if he prevails, McCain can position himself as the consensus
candidate Republicans have yearned for — a smaller-government,
lower-taxes, strong-on-defense conservative.

"Then McCain is able to set up a two-man race for the heart and soul of
the party — mainstream conservative versus extreme conservative," said
GOP consultant Tony Fabrizio.

The other Republican in this two-man scenario is former Arkansas Gov.
Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses last week with overwhelming
support from born-again Christians and is hoping for a victory Jan. 19
in South Carolina.

In New Hampshire, McCain's fate was determined by independent voters,
who helped McCain win the state over Bush eight years ago. While he was
neck-and-neck with Romney among Republicans, more than a third of
independents backed McCain, compared with a quarter for Romney,
according to exit surveys for The Associated Press and the television
networks.

McCain had competition for the independent vote from Democrat Barack
Obama, who defeated Hillary Rodham Clinton last week in the Iowa
Democratic caucuses. Independents dominate the state's electorate and
were drawn in larger numbers to Obama's bid to become the country's
first black president.

Once considered the favorite in a multi-candidate field, McCain
capsized last year, his campaign plummeting as he defended a plan to
give illegal immigrants an eventual path to citizenship, angering a GOP
conservative base that had never fully trusted the senator, especially
after he broke with President Bush on tax cuts. A raft of senior aides
abandoned ship, and more were laid off as McCain ran out of money.

Romney moved ahead in polling in New Hampshire, where as a former
Massachusetts governor he was a neighbor, even an expatriate,
considering he has a lakeside vacation home in New Hampshire.

Then a confluence of events helped to stabilize McCain. Support began
to slowly but steadily erode for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani,
who attracts the same independent-minded Republicans as McCain.

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson faded after his late entry into the
race. Huckabee surged in Iowa, pulling conservatives from Romney, whose
Mormonism drew suspicion from the party's evangelical Christian base.

The immigration drumbeat began to subside as attention turned to other
issues, and the unpopular war in Iraq seemed to be turning around, a
development Republicans credited to Bush's troop surge, a strategy long
advocated by McCain.

In recent weeks, McCain shot ahead of Giuliani and finally Romney in
polls in New Hampshire, the site of McCain's biggest victory in 2000.

Giuliani, who came in sixth in Iowa, was competing for fourth in New
Hampshire with longshot anti-war candidate Ron Paul, a Texas
congressman. He is pinning his hopes on Florida, which votes three
weeks from now, and the idea of rolling up several big states in the
Feb. 5 mega Tuesday primaries.

McCain was viewed as the most electable Republican by four in 10 GOP
primary voters, giving him a slight advantage over Romney.

Romney had an edge among conservatives, who made up little more than
half of Tuesday's GOP vote, but McCain held a nearly 2-to-1 advantage
among moderates.

Among born-again or evangelical Christians, McCain lagged Huckabee. But
among those who do not put themselves in this category, a much larger
share, Huckabee had support from fewer than one in 10.

Interestingly, among voters who wanted their candidate to share their
religious beliefs, McCain led Romney, whose Mormonism has alienated
some voters, polls have shown.